Fraud Analyst Finds Average of 2 to 3 Percent Shift for Biden in Counties That Used Dominion
Ben Turner, founder and CEO of Fraud Spotters
Ben Turner, who used to be the chief actuary at Texas Mutual Workers’ Compensation Insurance, now runs Fraud Spotters, a consultancy specializing in detecting insurance fraud.
He has discovered a curious phenomenon: Counties that started using Dominion Voting Systems machines have on average moved by 2 to 3 points to the Democrat presidential candidate from the Republican compared to counties that didn’t adopt the machines. Turner published his methodology and findings on his company’s website, which also includes a FAQ page.
He looked at how, county-by-county, election results changed between the 2008 and 2020 presidential races, measuring whether adoption of Dominion would have any overall effect on the changes. He picked the 2008 election because, at the time, only New York State had widely adopted Dominion, according to data from VerifiedVoting.Org. He excluded New York from the analysis, leaving him 657 counties that have adopted Dominion and 2,388 that have not as of 2020.
Counties that used Dominion Voting Systems in 2008
Counties that used Dominion Voting Systems in 2020
He controlled for the differences in county population, the number of votes cast, urban/rural population split, population growth, international immigration rate, low-education population, high “natural amenity” areas, high “creative class” population, and manufacturing dependency.
Later, he added seven more control factors to the analysis, including race, voter preference, and population. Not only did the “Dominion effect” persist, but the probability of his results being a fluke decreased.
The effect somewhat decreased, to a 2.84-point shift, when he also controlled for age.
The probability that the results occurred by chance or due to some unobserved factor was about 1 in 1,000, the analysis showed.
In his estimation, the results were significant enough to potentially flip elections in at least four states. In Georgia, only about 0.24% of votes would need to be shifted from one candidate to the other for the state to flip. In Arizona, only one county—the populous Maricopa County—uses Dominion, but the margin there is so thin that shifting 0.51% of Maricopa’s votes could flip the state. In Wisconsin, 2.05% of votes in counties using Dominion would need to be shifted; in Nevada, 2.5%.
Turner used prior election data from MIT Election Data Science Lab, current election data from Politico, Dominion adoption data from VerifiedVoting.Org, and demographic data from the Department of Agriculture.
The Epoch Times has independently replicated and verified his work and findings. According to the Times, two statistics professors in two U.S. universities also found Turner’s methodology sound.
After he went public with his findings, more people contacted Turner with further questions, suggesting, for example, more extensive controls. He addressed these questions on a FAQ page.
As of January 2, 2020, we are not aware of any contradictory statistical analysis to Turner’s, or any claims that his methodology is flawed. Nor are we aware of any proposed alternative explanation to Turner’s.
Dominion has been under fire for years over alleged vulnerabilities in its system. A recent forensic audit in one Michigan county concluded the system is “intentionally and purposefully designed with inherent errors to create systemic fraud and influence election results.”
Dominion Voting Systems has denied that its software can be used to switch votes from one candidate to another or that it has foreign government ties.